兆易创新｜旧假设／新假设／证据／三档价变化
核定：2026-09-12-R2；结论：已核定·调整价位。研究核定无需逐家用户批准。
旧假设 [O]
最新三档价已校准，但新终值参数组合未披露。
新假设与判断 [J]
旧160亿元收入、45%毛利及各项费用率与50亿元正常化利润不能直接闭合。本轮从存储中周期净价与毛利、MCU和其他产品分项重建，不把H1周期峰值或22.28亿元公允价值收益永久化。超额现金只计70亿元，较原100亿元留更大研发/库存缓冲；未另外加股票投资市值。
定价边界与失效条件
本次重新推导分部利润、归母比例、现金占用与成熟现金；这不是所有L1—L7原始证据的重新调查。
三档价变化
603986.SH · CNY
| 档位 | 旧值 | 新值 | 绝对变化 | 变化率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 首档 | 205 | 92.3 | -112.7 | -55.0% |
| 主仓 | 180 | 80.6 | -99.4 | -55.2% |
| 核心 | 158 | 70.7 | -87.3 | -55.3% |
03986.HK · HKD
| 档位 | 旧值 | 新值 | 绝对变化 | 变化率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 首档 | 236 | 106.1 | -129.9 | -55.0% |
| 主仓 | 207 | 92.6 | -114.4 | -55.3% |
| 核心 | 182 | 81.2 | -100.8 | -55.4% |
本轮原始证据 [F]
| 证据 | 位置与观察 |
|---|---|
| F1 官方公告 · 本地PDF（本地核验材料，未公开） | PDF p6；H1收入115.66亿元、归母68.57亿元、扣非48.83亿元、OCF60.48亿元；不能以当期高毛利和投资收益外推永久水平。p41股本701,749,599。；SHA256 8d559a90a9ddc41e667f630afb620004549d31d43de06f9ddb0ab4c2dc84f25f |
旧假设具体位置 [O]
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/兆易创新_603986_03986_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L1–8）
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/兆易创新_603986_03986_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L81–83）
2026正常化扣非利润定为45—55亿元、锚50亿元；2031 Base为90亿元；五因子终值PE 20—24倍、Base 22倍。A股试仓/主仓/核心价169/148/130元；H股195/171/150港元。当前价格隐含2031利润约256—260亿元，显著高于Base与Bull。
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/兆易创新_603986_03986_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L434–436）
| 当前动作 | A股406.00元：等待，不追周期峰值 |
| 同步规则 | 只要正常化利润、终值PE、股本/净现金或目标回报率改变，价格带与动作必须同步重算 |
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/兆易创新_603986_03986_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L37–37）
复算模型及敏感性 [J]
模型输入（本地核验材料，未公开） · 逐年结果/情景与压力（本地核验材料，未公开）；JSON以公司名定位。
| 情景／资本结局 | 2031归母利润（模型货币/规模） | 成熟业务PE或PB | 三档价 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35.340 | 9.664 | CN:603986：44.4 / 38.9 / 34.2；HK:03986：51.1 / 44.7 / 39.4 |
| Base | 69.274 | 12.029 | CN:603986：92.3 / 80.6 / 70.7；HK:03986：106.1 / 92.6 / 81.2 |
| Bull | 96.611 | 12.877 | CN:603986：131.1 / 114.4 / 100.2；HK:03986：150.7 / 131.5 / 115.2 |
| 压力情景 | 计算结果 |
|---|---|
| Bear 股权成本变动-.01 | CN:603986：47.6 / 41.6 / 36.6；HK:03986：54.7 / 47.9 / 42.1 |
| Bear 股权成本变动0 | CN:603986：44.4 / 38.9 / 34.2；HK:03986：51.1 / 44.7 / 39.4 |
| Bear 股权成本变动.01 | CN:603986：41.9 / 36.7 / 32.3；HK:03986：48.1 / 42.2 / 37.1 |
| Base 股权成本变动-.01 | CN:603986：102.5 / 89.5 / 78.5；HK:03986：117.9 / 102.9 / 90.2 |
| Base 股权成本变动0 | CN:603986：92.3 / 80.6 / 70.7；HK:03986：106.1 / 92.6 / 81.2 |
| Base 股权成本变动.01 | CN:603986：84.2 / 73.6 / 64.6；HK:03986：96.8 / 84.6 / 74.2 |
| Bull 股权成本变动-.01 | CN:603986：148.0 / 129.1 / 113.0；HK:03986：170.1 / 148.4 / 129.9 |
| Bull 股权成本变动0 | CN:603986：131.1 / 114.4 / 100.2；HK:03986：150.7 / 131.5 / 115.2 |
| Bull 股权成本变动.01 | CN:603986：118.1 / 103.1 / 90.4；HK:03986：135.8 / 118.6 / 103.9 |
| 取消第二阶段 股权成本变动0 | CN:603986：90.0 / 78.6 / 68.9；HK:03986：103.4 / 90.3 / 79.2 |
| 一次性收入5%现金占用 股权成本变动0 | CN:603986：91.6 / 80.0 / 70.1；HK:03986：105.3 / 91.9 / 80.6 |
| 额外每年1%稀释 股权成本变动0 | CN:603986：85.0 / 74.2 / 65.1；HK:03986：97.7 / 85.3 / 74.8 |
金额及股份通常均以亿为单位；联想模型用亿美元，ASMPT用亿港元，招商银行用每股人民币。表中PE/PB是2036成熟参数，资本情景不强行合成PE。完整逐年现金、股份和反向核对在上方JSON结果链接。
<details><summary>展开明确的模型输入</summary>
{
"company": "兆易创新",
"valuation_as_of": "2026-09-12",
"methodology_version": "V3.7.0",
"model_version": "segment-equity-cash-v1",
"source_report": {
"id": "de86f1a273dbf8aceb19",
"path": "reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/兆易创新_603986_03986_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md",
"sha256": "2d2cd9f81435e669dc910cb9ffb9405643789547afb7a6feca477c188ab942c6",
"title": "兆易创新｜2026-Q3个股季度报告（价位校核版）",
"line_start": 1,
"line_end": 8,
"excerpt": "# 兆易创新｜2026-Q3个股季度报告（价位校核版）\n\n研究数据基准：2026-09-01；口径校核：2026-09-12；原估值版本：V5.3。\n\n原报告摘要与后续正式估值章节价格不一致；现行部分采用正式校准价，旧摘要与模型在历史章节保留。\n\n## 当前采用价位 · 兆易创新A（603986.SH，CNY）\n",
"kind": "stock",
"quarter": "2026-Q3",
"subject": "兆易创新",
"theme": "半导体/Edge AI",
"securities": [
"CN:603986",
"HK:03986"
],
"research_as_of": "2026-09-01",
"reviewed_on": "2026-09-12",
"valuation_version": "V5.3",
"edition_note": "原报告摘要与后续正式估值章节价格不一致；现行部分采用正式校准价，旧摘要与模型在历史章节保留。",
"source_references": [
{
"excerpt": "| 当前价格纪律 | A股 **205/180/158元**；H股 **236/207/182港元** |",
"id": "ada46f11dc7d3ffff114",
"line_end": 418,
"line_start": 418,
"path": "docs/audits/2026-09-05/source-snapshot/Aignis/投资/Invest/202609分析报告/半导体/兆易创新_603986_2026年09月_长期投资深度分析_V5.3.md",
"sha256": "0701a91958cd36255ddb051d9cbbddc11c3ba41386ef12e90c8921b64ee0eb83",
"title": "兆易创新｜长期投资深度分析（2026年第三季度）"
}
],
"supersedes": [
"ada46f11dc7d3ffff114"
],
"history_start_line": 53
},
"prior_assumptions": "最新三档价已校准，但新终值参数组合未披露。",
"prior_targets": [
{
"security_id": "CN:603986",
"code": "603986.SH",
"currency": "CNY",
"old_targets": {
"core_price": "158",
"entry_price": "205",
"main_price": "180"
},
"proposed_targets": {
"entry_price": null,
"main_price": null,
"core_price": null
},
"price_delta": {
"entry_price": null,
"main_price": null,
"core_price": null
},
"registered_targets_after_review": {
"core_price": "158",
"entry_price": "205",
"main_price": "180"
},
"registered_numeric_delta": {
"entry_price": "0",
"main_price": "0",
"core_price": "0"
},
"published_change": false
},
{
"security_id": "HK:03986",
"code": "03986.HK",
"currency": "HKD",
"old_targets": {
"core_price": "182",
"entry_price": "236",
"main_price": "207"
},
"proposed_targets": {
"entry_price": null,
"main_price": null,
"core_price": null
},
"price_delta": {
"entry_price": null,
"main_price": null,
"core_price": null
},
"registered_targets_after_review": {
"core_price": "182",
"entry_price": "236",
"main_price": "207"
},
"registered_numeric_delta": {
"entry_price": "0",
"main_price": "0",
"core_price": "0"
},
"published_change": false
}
],
"shares_2026": "7.01749599",
"cny_per_hkd": ".87",
"required_returns": [
".12",
".15",
".18"
],
"markets": [
{
"security_id": "CN:603986",
"currency": "CNY",
"rounding_increment": ".1"
},
{
"security_id": "HK:03986",
"currency": "HKD",
"rounding_increment": ".1"
}
],
"scenarios": {
"Bear": {
"segments": [
{
"name": "中周期存储",
"revenue_2026": "120",
"volume_growth": ".04",
"net_price_growth": "-0.02",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.5",
"gross_margin_2031": ".40",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.08",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.08",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.06",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.06",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.22",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.22",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "MCU",
"revenue_2026": "30",
"volume_growth": ".10",
"net_price_growth": "-0.025",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.4",
"gross_margin_2031": ".36",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.16",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.14",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.09",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.07",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.23",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.2",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "模拟与其他",
"revenue_2026": "10",
"volume_growth": ".12",
"net_price_growth": "-0.025",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.3",
"gross_margin_2031": ".28",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.15",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.14",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.08",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.07",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.25",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.2",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
}
],
"terminal_ke": ".105",
"stable_growth": ".005",
"distribution_fraction": ".30",
"annual_share_dilution": "0",
"initial_surplus_cash_credit": "50",
"continuation_growth": [
".02",
".015",
".01",
".005",
".005"
]
},
"Base": {
"segments": [
{
"name": "中周期存储",
"revenue_2026": "120",
"volume_growth": "0.105",
"net_price_growth": "-0.02",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.5",
"gross_margin_2031": "0.5",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.08",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.08",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.06",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.06",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.22",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.22",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "MCU",
"revenue_2026": "30",
"volume_growth": "0.2",
"net_price_growth": "-0.025",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.4",
"gross_margin_2031": "0.42",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.16",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.14",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.09",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.07",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.23",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.2",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "模拟与其他",
"revenue_2026": "10",
"volume_growth": "0.25",
"net_price_growth": "-0.025",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.3",
"gross_margin_2031": "0.35",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.15",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.14",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.08",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.07",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.25",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.2",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
}
],
"terminal_ke": ".105",
"stable_growth": ".025",
"distribution_fraction": ".30",
"annual_share_dilution": "0",
"initial_surplus_cash_credit": "70",
"continuation_growth": [
".07",
".05",
".04",
".03",
".025"
]
},
"Bull": {
"segments": [
{
"name": "中周期存储",
"revenue_2026": "120",
"volume_growth": ".15",
"net_price_growth": "-0.02",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.5",
"gross_margin_2031": ".54",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.08",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.08",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.06",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.06",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.22",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.22",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "MCU",
"revenue_2026": "30",
"volume_growth": ".27",
"net_price_growth": "-0.025",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.4",
"gross_margin_2031": ".45",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.16",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.14",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.09",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.07",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.23",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.2",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "模拟与其他",
"revenue_2026": "10",
"volume_growth": ".32",
"net_price_growth": "-0.025",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.3",
"gross_margin_2031": ".38",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.15",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.14",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.08",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.07",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "0.25",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.2",
"tax_rate": ".15",
"parent_share": ".995",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
}
],
"terminal_ke": ".105",
"stable_growth": ".03",
"distribution_fraction": ".30",
"annual_share_dilution": "0",
"initial_surplus_cash_credit": "70",
"continuation_growth": [
".08",
".065",
".05",
".04",
".03"
]
}
},
"research_judgment": "旧160亿元收入、45%毛利及各项费用率与50亿元正常化利润不能直接闭合。本轮从存储中周期净价与毛利、MCU和其他产品分项重建，不把H1周期峰值或22.28亿元公允价值收益永久化。超额现金只计70亿元，较原100亿元留更大研发/库存缓冲；未另外加股票投资市值。",
"verified_facts": [
"2026H1收入115.6576亿元、归母68.5679亿元、扣非48.8303亿元、OCF60.4834亿元。",
"H1股份总数701749599股；净资产增长含投资公允价值和H股募集资金，不能全算经营ROE改善。",
"货币资金169.646亿元；70亿元是本轮扣除研发、备货、受限与资金用途不确定性的研究价值信用，不是审计确认的超额现金。"
],
"primary_source_names": [
"兆易创新-中报"
],
"disconfirming_checks": [
"存储中周期毛利低于45%",
"MCU收入增长但全费用化研发回报恶化",
"股权投资下跌且大规模补充资金"
],
"review_state": "model_draft_pending_independent_arithmetic_and_source_review",
"assumptions_label": "2026正常化是年尺度经营/中周期基准，不是对当年全年财报利润的预测（兆易尤其如此）。未来量价、成本、权益投入、派息和成熟参数均为研究假设；公告只支持历史事实。",
"funding_basis": "研发及股权薪酬按现金等价成本全额扣除；基准假设股份薪酬由同额现金预算抵消净发行，因此不再重复扣一次净稀释。额外每年1%净稀释另作预算外压力情景。资本系数为维持现有杠杆假设下、股东承担的经营净资产增量代理，按各分部归属权益折算；销售管理综合费用假设包含正常化融资支出和租赁占用成本，未另加闲置现金利息。实际净融资不增长，若发生增资另重算。未来派息取利润分配假设与FCFE较低者，未付现金不计利息；2031年能从后续资金需要中分离的现金先单列，余值才在2036年计入，不能重复。",
"timing_basis": "按2027—2036年末现金流计算；三档为2031末退出、含延续价值。额外折现2026-09-12至2026年末的110天。尚未确认的2026余期分红不另给价值信用；不是事实上的零分红。",
"authority": "研究核定不产生交易事实，不自动改变经营Gate、账户政策或个人手工目标价。"
}
</details>