东鹏饮料｜旧假设／新假设／证据／三档价变化
核定：2026-09-12-R2；结论：已核定·调整价位。研究核定无需逐家用户批准。
旧假设 [O]
2031收入400亿、利润80亿、终值22x；约7.35亿股，累计股息25元/股。
新假设与判断 [J]
把80亿元作为需要新品高复购和费用下降才能到达的条件值；Base对新品采用更低毛利及不下降的销售投入，不给茶饮平台独立溢价。股息按逐年可分配现金计算，不把累计25元全部挪到2031；成熟PE不再由五因子22x直接指定。H股募资不进入经营收入或利润。
定价边界与失效条件
本次重新推导分部利润、归母比例、现金占用与成熟现金；这不是所有L1—L7原始证据的重新调查。
三档价变化
605499.SH · CNY
| 档位 | 旧值 | 新值 | 绝对变化 | 变化率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 首档 | 132 | 103.2 | -28.8 | -21.8% |
| 主仓 | 120 | 90.5 | -29.5 | -24.6% |
| 核心 | 105 | 79.7 | -25.3 | -24.1% |
本轮原始证据 [F]
| 证据 | 位置与观察 |
|---|---|
| F1 官方公告 · 本地PDF（本地核验材料，未公开） | PDF p6；H1收入124.43亿元、归母28.67亿元、扣非25.98亿元、OCF24.93亿元；p58-59股本734,199,310，不能沿用扩股前分母。；SHA256 280d0d1f7c5880911a2d1b5cbcee39473ce1f3c0613c631ef543c5751f00e192 |
| F2 官方公告 · 本地PDF（本地核验材料，未公开） | PDF p1,2,3；H股公告-截至二零二六年八月三十一日止之股份发行人的证券变动月报表；SHA256 e824cd62163e321c1e2bf004248c39630f4755295e591c9a429e5eb7da362a8b |
旧假设具体位置 [O]
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/东鹏饮料_605499_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L1–8）
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/东鹏饮料_605499_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L36–38）
**2031 Base：收入400亿元、正常化归母利润80亿元、终值22倍（E）。** 以约7.35亿股摊薄股本和累计股息25元/股估算，2031总价值约265元/股；现价对应Base五年年化约17.0%。
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/东鹏饮料_605499_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L206–208）
## 12. 终值PE五因子框架
reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/东鹏饮料_605499_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md（本地核验材料，未公开）（L29–29）
复算模型及敏感性 [J]
模型输入（本地核验材料，未公开） · 逐年结果/情景与压力（本地核验材料，未公开）；JSON以公司名定位。
| 情景／资本结局 | 2031归母利润（模型货币/规模） | 成熟业务PE或PB | 三档价 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 54.077 | 10.713 | CN:605499：66.4 / 58.4 / 51.6 |
| Base | 73.458 | 13.524 | CN:605499：103.2 / 90.5 / 79.7 |
| Bull | 113.458 | 14.641 | CN:605499：163.7 / 143.2 / 125.8 |
| 压力情景 | 计算结果 |
|---|---|
| Bear 股权成本变动-.01 | CN:605499：72.2 / 63.4 / 56.0 |
| Bear 股权成本变动0 | CN:605499：66.4 / 58.4 / 51.6 |
| Bear 股权成本变动.01 | CN:605499：61.8 / 54.4 / 48.1 |
| Base 股权成本变动-.01 | CN:605499：116.5 / 102.0 / 89.7 |
| Base 股权成本变动0 | CN:605499：103.2 / 90.5 / 79.7 |
| Base 股权成本变动.01 | CN:605499：93.3 / 81.8 / 72.1 |
| Bull 股权成本变动-.01 | CN:605499：188.9 / 165.1 / 144.9 |
| Bull 股权成本变动0 | CN:605499：163.7 / 143.2 / 125.8 |
| Bull 股权成本变动.01 | CN:605499：145.2 / 127.2 / 111.8 |
| 取消第二阶段 股权成本变动0 | CN:605499：100.9 / 88.5 / 77.9 |
| 一次性收入5%现金占用 股权成本变动0 | CN:605499：102.2 / 89.6 / 78.8 |
| 额外每年1%稀释 股权成本变动0 | CN:605499：95.2 / 83.5 / 73.6 |
金额及股份通常均以亿为单位；联想模型用亿美元，ASMPT用亿港元，招商银行用每股人民币。表中PE/PB是2036成熟参数，资本情景不强行合成PE。完整逐年现金、股份和反向核对在上方JSON结果链接。
<details><summary>展开明确的模型输入</summary>
{
"company": "东鹏饮料",
"valuation_as_of": "2026-09-12",
"methodology_version": "V3.7.0",
"model_version": "segment-equity-cash-v1",
"source_report": {
"id": "ed91432b23f7abeb94ee",
"path": "reports/个股季度报告/2026-Q3/东鹏饮料_605499_2026-Q3_校核20260912.md",
"sha256": "4e3cc9c3b5b340de9c01c2da260500d8408597f36137c8c993cb0b86f3c1d6a4",
"title": "东鹏饮料｜2026-Q3个股季度报告（价位校核版）",
"line_start": 1,
"line_end": 8,
"excerpt": "# 东鹏饮料｜2026-Q3个股季度报告（价位校核版）\n\n研究数据基准：2026-09-01；口径校核：2026-09-12；原估值版本：2026-09。\n\n按正式估值章节校核价格，保留原始经营证据与模型来源；本次整理不构成新一轮经营预测。\n\n## 当前采用价位 · 东鹏饮料（605499.SH，CNY）\n",
"kind": "stock",
"quarter": "2026-Q3",
"subject": "东鹏饮料",
"theme": "消费",
"securities": [
"CN:605499"
],
"research_as_of": "2026-09-01",
"reviewed_on": "2026-09-12",
"valuation_version": "2026-09",
"edition_note": "按正式估值章节校核价格，保留原始经营证据与模型来源；本次整理不构成新一轮经营预测。",
"source_references": [
{
"excerpt": "| 第一档试仓 | ≤132元 | 目标仓位20%—30% |\n| 主要建仓 | ≤120元 | 要求新品复购与费用率Gate通过 |\n| 核心价格 | ≤105元 | 基本面未破坏时完成主要仓位 |",
"id": "6648fc1866e8e0ba170d",
"line_end": 28,
"line_start": 26,
"path": "docs/audits/2026-09-05/source-snapshot/Aignis/投资/Invest/202609分析报告/消费/东鹏饮料_605499_2026年09月.md",
"sha256": "53b326e69759be98a1b126df8f376175e8c9dd4dcb4449ed7a97d00659ff3044",
"title": "东鹏饮料（605499.SH / 09980.HK）｜长期投资深度分析（2026年第三季度）"
}
],
"supersedes": [
"6648fc1866e8e0ba170d"
]
},
"prior_assumptions": "2031收入400亿、利润80亿、终值22x；约7.35亿股，累计股息25元/股。",
"prior_targets": [
{
"security_id": "CN:605499",
"code": "605499.SH",
"currency": "CNY",
"old_targets": {
"core_price": "105",
"entry_price": "132",
"main_price": "120"
},
"proposed_targets": {
"entry_price": null,
"main_price": null,
"core_price": null
},
"price_delta": {
"entry_price": null,
"main_price": null,
"core_price": null
},
"registered_targets_after_review": {
"core_price": "105",
"entry_price": "132",
"main_price": "120"
},
"registered_numeric_delta": {
"entry_price": "0",
"main_price": "0",
"core_price": "0"
},
"published_change": false
}
],
"shares_2026": "7.34199310",
"cny_per_hkd": ".87",
"required_returns": [
".12",
".15",
".18"
],
"markets": [
{
"security_id": "CN:605499",
"currency": "CNY",
"rounding_increment": ".1"
}
],
"scenarios": {
"Bear": {
"segments": [
{
"name": "能量饮料",
"revenue_2026": "190",
"volume_growth": ".015",
"net_price_growth": "0.002",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.4836",
"gross_margin_2031": ".45",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.01",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.01",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.1936",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.19",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.06",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.45",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "电解质饮料",
"revenue_2026": "35",
"volume_growth": ".07",
"net_price_growth": "-0.01",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.47",
"gross_margin_2031": ".43",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.015",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.015",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.21",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.2",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.04",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.45",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "茶饮及其他新品",
"revenue_2026": "45",
"volume_growth": ".07",
"net_price_growth": "-0.015",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.45",
"gross_margin_2031": ".39",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.015",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.015",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.235",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.245",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.02",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.5",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
}
],
"terminal_ke": ".095",
"stable_growth": ".005",
"distribution_fraction": ".50",
"annual_share_dilution": "0",
"initial_surplus_cash_credit": "20",
"continuation_growth": [
".025",
".02",
".015",
".01",
".005"
]
},
"Base": {
"segments": [
{
"name": "能量饮料",
"revenue_2026": "190",
"volume_growth": "0.03",
"net_price_growth": "0.002",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.4836",
"gross_margin_2031": "0.49",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.01",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.01",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.1936",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.19",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.06",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.45",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "电解质饮料",
"revenue_2026": "35",
"volume_growth": "0.13",
"net_price_growth": "-0.01",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.47",
"gross_margin_2031": "0.47",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.015",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.015",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.21",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.2",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.04",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.45",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "茶饮及其他新品",
"revenue_2026": "45",
"volume_growth": "0.16",
"net_price_growth": "-0.015",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.45",
"gross_margin_2031": "0.42",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.015",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.015",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.235",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.245",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.02",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.5",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
}
],
"terminal_ke": ".095",
"stable_growth": ".025",
"distribution_fraction": ".50",
"annual_share_dilution": "0",
"initial_surplus_cash_credit": "40",
"continuation_growth": [
".05",
".045",
".04",
".03",
".025"
]
},
"Bull": {
"segments": [
{
"name": "能量饮料",
"revenue_2026": "190",
"volume_growth": ".075",
"net_price_growth": "0.002",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.4836",
"gross_margin_2031": ".51",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.01",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.01",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.1936",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.19",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.06",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.45",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "电解质饮料",
"revenue_2026": "35",
"volume_growth": ".20",
"net_price_growth": "-0.01",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.47",
"gross_margin_2031": ".49",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.015",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.015",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.21",
"sga_ratio_2031": "0.2",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.04",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.45",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
},
{
"name": "茶饮及其他新品",
"revenue_2026": "45",
"volume_growth": ".28",
"net_price_growth": "-0.015",
"gross_margin_2026": "0.45",
"gross_margin_2031": ".48",
"rd_ratio_2026": "0.015",
"rd_ratio_2031": "0.015",
"sga_ratio_2026": "0.235",
"sga_ratio_2031": ".205",
"equity_nwc_ratio": "-0.02",
"equity_asset_ratio": "0.5",
"tax_rate": ".22",
"parent_share": "1",
"maintenance_reserve_ratio": ".005"
}
],
"terminal_ke": ".095",
"stable_growth": ".03",
"distribution_fraction": ".50",
"annual_share_dilution": "0",
"initial_surplus_cash_credit": "40",
"continuation_growth": [
".075",
".065",
".05",
".04",
".03"
]
}
},
"research_judgment": "把80亿元作为需要新品高复购和费用下降才能到达的条件值；Base对新品采用更低毛利及不下降的销售投入，不给茶饮平台独立溢价。股息按逐年可分配现金计算，不把累计25元全部挪到2031；成熟PE不再由五因子22x直接指定。H股募资不进入经营收入或利润。",
"verified_facts": [
"2026H1收入124.4304亿元、归母28.6680亿元、扣非25.9760亿元、OCF24.9260亿元。",
"中期分红拟每股3元、按披露日基数测算21.8123亿元；该分红基数扣回购股，不与总发行股本混同。全文第58—59及144页确认总发行734199310股，使用7.34199310亿股，额外净稀释单列压力。"
],
"primary_source_names": [
"东鹏饮料-官方中报"
],
"disconfirming_checks": [
"特饮销量连续两个半年负增长",
"新品销售费用长期高于毛利增量",
"新增基地利用率不足、FCF连续两年弱于分配"
],
"review_state": "model_draft_pending_independent_arithmetic_and_source_review",
"assumptions_label": "2026正常化是年尺度经营/中周期基准，不是对当年全年财报利润的预测（兆易尤其如此）。未来量价、成本、权益投入、派息和成熟参数均为研究假设；公告只支持历史事实。",
"funding_basis": "研发及股权薪酬按现金等价成本全额扣除；基准假设股份薪酬由同额现金预算抵消净发行，因此不再重复扣一次净稀释。额外每年1%净稀释另作预算外压力情景。资本系数为维持现有杠杆假设下、股东承担的经营净资产增量代理，按各分部归属权益折算；销售管理综合费用假设包含正常化融资支出和租赁占用成本，未另加闲置现金利息。实际净融资不增长，若发生增资另重算。未来派息取利润分配假设与FCFE较低者，未付现金不计利息；2031年能从后续资金需要中分离的现金先单列，余值才在2036年计入，不能重复。",
"timing_basis": "按2027—2036年末现金流计算；三档为2031末退出、含延续价值。额外折现2026-09-12至2026年末的110天。尚未确认的2026余期分红不另给价值信用；不是事实上的零分红。",
"authority": "研究核定不产生交易事实，不自动改变经营Gate、账户政策或个人手工目标价。"
}
</details>